Corn prices, currently near a three-week low of about USD 4.70 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), are expected to rise throughout 2024 due to tightening global supplies. This outlook persists despite market pressures from US-China trade tensions and increased US corn plantings.
According to BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, global corn inventories are forecast to drop 6% below opening levels in 2025, largely due to reduced Chinese imports. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) also reports declining global ending stocks. For 2024–25, global production is estimated at 1,215 million tonnes (mt), slightly down from last year, while consumption is projected to rise to 1,242 mt — creating a supply-demand gap and pushing stocks to a multi-year low of 287.65 mt.
BMI has revised its 2025 corn price forecast upward to USD 4.60 per bushel, reflecting a 2.5% increase since early 2024. Conversely, the World Bank projects a 2% price decline in 2025–26 due to lower crude oil prices and reduced ethanol demand.
Attention now shifts to US spring planting, where acreage expansion is expected. ING warns that despite better EU and Ukrainian outputs in 2025–26, lower US yields may keep global stocks near 290 mt.
While global corn production may peak in 2025–26, matching consumption gains could prevent stock buildup. Key risks affecting corn prices include ethanol policies in the US and Brazil, weather fluctuations, and ongoing trade tensions.
