EUDR’s high-risk countries deforestation risk reviewed

Last week, the European Union announced the four countries that would be considered ‘high-risk’ under the EUDR’s benchmarking system – Russia, Belarus, Myanmar, and North Korea. Key commodity producers such as Brazil (a major producer of coffee and soybean) and Indonesia and Malaysia (major producers of palm oil) were considered standard risk.

Before this announcement, the EU suggested that it would pay ‘special attention’ to countries under EU Council or UN Security Council sanctions in the EUDR country benchmarking. All four countries listed here are under EU sanctions.

How significant is the deforestation risk in these four countries?

Russia: More tree cover loss than any other country

Russia is the world’s most forested country, containing millions of hectares of sweeping boreal forest. Nearly half of the vast country is taken up by forest, with human settlements concentrated in the West, close to Europe.

The country lost 88.8 million hectares of its forest between 2001 and 2024, according to the World Resources Institute. This is the largest recorded forest loss globally, even more than Brazil which lost 73.3mha in the same period.

However, only 1% of Russia’s tree cover loss is likely to be permanent. This is in contrast to other countries such as Brazil, where 75% of forest loss is irreversible.

Looking further into this tree cover loss, 74.3% of it was due to wildfires, according to the World Resources Institute. This is, it explains, a natural part of boreal forest dynamics.

Despite Russia’s immense loss of tree cover, some have suggested that it has actually seen a net increase in tree cover during this period, due to forest growth in farmland abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union.

In terms of human activity, 22.4% was lost due to logging. According to Global Forest Watch, logging is a driver of “temporary disturbance” rather than a deforestation driver.

In 2024, the EU was Russia’s third largest trading partner, with 7.3% of its exports going to the EU.

Belarus: Minimal tree cover loss due to deforestation

Belarus, a neighbour and key strategic ally of Russia, is nearly as heavily forested, proportionally, as the larger country. According to Statista, 43% of the country is forested.

Belarus lost 1.17Mha of tree cover between 2001 and 2024, according to Global Forest Watch.

This was in large part due to logging, with 96.9% of forest loss in Belarus attributed to this cause. Other causes were wildfires (1.5%), settlements and infrastructure (0.5%) and permanent agriculture (0.5%).

Only 1.4% of tree cover loss, according to Global Forest Watch, occurred in areas where the dominant drivers of loss resulted in deforestation. The largest cause of deforestation proper was settlements and infrastructure, which drove 6.21kha of forest cover loss, or 0.5%.

In 2024, the EU was Belarus’s second largest trading partner, representing about 10.5% of goods traded. The EU imported around €1.3bn worth of goods from Belarus in that year, including €302m in food and raw materials (see boxout).

Myanmar: Deforestation less severe than its neighbours’

Like Belarus and Russia, Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is a heavily forested country. A 2015 assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) found that around 44% of its land area was covered by forest, which is diverse in both structure and composition.

Unlike its fellow southeast Asian countries Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, it is not a major producer of palm oil.

In total, Myanmar saw 5.15mha of tree cover loss between 2001 and 2024, according to Global Forest Watch.

A significant amount of this was due to deforestation. 1.77mha of forest was lost in the country due to permanent agriculture in this period (34.4% of the total). Other, lesser drivers were hard commodities as well as settlements and infrastructure.

38% of tree cover loss occurred in areas where the dominant drivers of loss were deforestation, according to Global Forest Watch, compared to 77% in Malaysia and 76% in Indonesia.

The main driver of tree cover loss not linked to deforestation was shifting cultivation, making up 59.9% of the total.

Myanmar is the EU’s 75th largest trading partner, making up 0.1% of trade. The EU is Myanmar’s fourth largest trading partner, making up 10.3% of its trade. In 2024, the EU imported €3.1bn worth of Myanmarese goods, mostly textiles.

North Korea: Deforestation levels small but significant

North Korea, sometimes nicknamed ‘the hermit kingdom,’ is not well-known for its forests. However, it is in fact a heavily forested country. As of 2020, 50% of the country was taken up by forest, according to Global Forest Watch.

Between 2001 and 2024, total tree cover loss in North Korea was 293kha.

Deforestation in North Korea is primarily driven by permanent agriculture. Between 2001 and 2024, 57.4kha of tree cover was lost to permanent agriculture, 19.8% of the total. Other drivers include settlements and infrastructure and hard commodities.

Twenty one percent of tree cover loss occurred in areas where dominant drivers of loss led to deforestation.

The two primary causes of tree cover loss in North Korea, however, were logging (55.1% of the total) and wildfires (23.7%).

The EU currently has no official trade relationship with North Korea, but still imports some of its products.